Week three marks a crucial point in the season, as it signals the beginning of many teams’ conference schedules. It also means that we’re starting to get an idea of how good and bad teams actually are. As the clear contenders start to separate themselves from the rest, this week’s matchups are full of season-defining showdowns.

Honorable Mention. Memphis @ Troy

Though it may not appear to be, this is one of the best games of the week, and easily the best game that the Group of 5 has to offer. These teams come in from opposite sides of the spectrum. In the second half of the Tigers’ game, Memphis outscored Georgia State 24-0. In the second half of the Trojans’ game, Troy was killed by Clemson 0-24. Somehow, the discourse of both teams is similar: they are both dangerous. This Saturday, one will lunge themselves deep into playoff conversations.

Memphis

Coming off back-to-back double-digit win seasons, it’d be a given that the Tigers came into the season as one of the clear favorites to nab the Group of 5 playoff bid. Without Seth Henigan as the starting quarterback for the first time in four years though, this team is not as heavily favored as you would think. They started off with just the fifth-highest odds to win the AAC, but Nevada transfer QB Brendon Lewis has already started to get the hype back with this team. Through two weeks, he’s got the second-highest completion rate in the nation at 79.2%, leading the Tigers to outscoring opponents 83-26, despite his one passing touchdown. The major damage comes from his legs; nationally, he’s ninth in quarterback rushing yards (149) and eighth in quarterback rushing touchdowns (2). Combine his talents with the Tigers’ deep running back room, and Memphis has formed an offense that is seventh in the nation in rushing touchdowns per game (4.0). The most spectacular player on the team so far has been LB Demarco Ward, who is the only player in the nation with two pick-sixes. Now, all of this is great, but it’s been against Chattanooga and Georgia State. The competition is ramping up, and the Tigers cannot afford any losses.

Troy

For Jon Sumrall’s two-year run, the Trojans were one of the most fierce Group of 5 teams in the nation; they won back-to-back Sun Belt championships and totaled 23 wins. However, Sumrall was snatched by Tulane, leaving new HC Gerad Parker with a broken team last season. Parker didn’t get his first win over an FBS team until week 10, leading the Trojans to a 4-8 record — three of those wins came in their last four games though, setting the table for a huge breakout year. So after beating Nicholls State 38-20 in week one, the Trojans found themselves on the precipice of one of the craziest upsets of all time in week two. At halftime, Troy was leading Clemson, the nation’s number eight team, 16-3 in Death Valley. Unfortunately for just about everybody but Tigers fans, Dabo Swinney pulled his group together to score 24 unanswered points. However, the message was clear: Troy is not to be taken lightly. The Tigers’ win came mostly from the mistakes of QB Will Crowder, who threw two interceptions in the third quarter — in his 107 career pass attempts before week two, Crowder had never even thrown a pick. If Crowder were to cut down on the interceptions, which he should be able to do when not facing a secondary like Clemson’s, the Trojans can beat almost any team in the country.

The Matchup

Memphis is starting to assert itself as a Group of 5 giant, but Troy may be this year’s giant-killer. There’s a clear contrast between these two teams though. The Tigers are led by head coach Ryan Silverfield, who has never had a losing season, is 4-0 in bowl games, and is in the midst of a five-year contract extension. Meanwhile, Parker is on the opposite side of the coaching spectrum: he went 0-6 at Purdue in his only head coaching experience before Troy, was severely disappointing in year one, and is paid $900,000 a year (way too much to not make a bowl game this season). Silverfield has a very comfortable throne in Memphis, while Parker’s seat is burning hot. Luckily for Parker, the Trojans have some of the most momentum in the nation on their side, because after coming so close to pulling off one of the greatest upsets in college football history, the team is hungry. And such a promising performance has brought the fans back on board, as the fanbase is preparing to see a program-defining victory on Saturday. Everybody in Troy has a fire under them, whether it’s because their job is on the line, they’ve tasted the euphoria of an upset, or there’s real hope for a special game. At home, I’ll take the Trojans.

Yi Key to Victory:

Memphis: Let the stars shine. The Tigers are more talented across the board.

Troy: Hold back on the interceptions. It would’ve been enough against Clemson, and it would be here too.

Prediction: Memphis 14, Troy 20

5. (12) Clemson @ Georgia Tech

ACC play kicks off in week three with one of the best games the conference has to offer all year. Everyone knows that Clemson is one of the favorites to win the national championship. Over the past two weeks, that take has soured a bit, but nobody genuinely thinks that they’re not one of the best teams in the nation. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech is the ACC’s dark horse. With the sixth-highest odds to win the conference championship, GT is playing every game with a chip on their shoulder. Which team will have a statement victory in Atlanta?

Clemson

The Tigers are off to a rough start. Losing in week one at home is rough enough, but almost doing it again in week two is even worse, especially when it’s to Troy. Worst of all, their preseason Heisman candidate, QB Cade Klubnik, has had a terrible start. In 2024, Klubnik threw an outstanding 36 touchdowns to just six interceptions, while running for 463 yards and seven touchdowns . To start 2025, Klubnik has thrown two touchdowns and two interceptions with -3 rushing yards. His play has stalled this offense out. Eight starters from last year’s top-20 offense returned to this team (setting up expectations to be the best offense in the nation), yet the Tigers’ averages per game sit at 18.5 points, 288.5 yards, and 15.0 first downs — all rank in the bottom 30 in the nation. Even the defense, which also welcomed back eight starters, has struggled to get its footing. Per game, they’ve allowed 16.5 points, 328.5 yards, and 20.5 first downs — all rank in the middle of the ACC. Though it was just two games, one of which was against the #3 team in the nation, Clemson is clearly struggling. Now, let’s not forget that the Tigers are still loaded with talent across the board, plus they have HC Dabo Swinney. And personally, I have a lot of confidence in Klubnik, and I believe he’ll pick his play up. However, it’s undeniable that the Tigers are vulnerable right now.

Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets are off to a wonderful start. They kicked off their season with a dramatic victory for the second season in a row, beating Colorado in Boulder in the final minutes, and then cleaned up Gardner-Webb in week two. Star RB duo, Jamal Haynes and Malachi Hosley, have been electric, combining for 304 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Their receiving game has been doing well across the board, with future NFL WRs Eric Rivers and Malik Rutherford leading the charge. The defense has looked adequate, shutting down QB Kaidon Salter and only allowing 12 points to Gardner-Webb. However, the problems arise at QB Haynes King, which (heading into the season) is where nobody thought problems would be. It’s not his play at all though, it’s his body. King is dealing with a lower-body injury that caused him to miss last week’s game, and HC Brent Key said that they’ll determine his availability in Saturday’s matchup “this weekend.” King is the reason that the Yellow Jackets won in week one. He threw for just 143 yards with a fine 65.0% completion rate, but that’s not where King strives; running the ball, he had 156 yards and three touchdowns, including the 45-yard game-winning touchdown. Without King, GT could be in massive trouble against Clemson. With him though, they don’t just have a fighting chance, but the odds may start leaning in their favor.

The Matchup

This entire game lies in the health of one player: Haynes King. If he plays, we could have an absolute show in Atlanta. If he doesn’t, it’s hard to be excited for this one. However, I assume that he’ll play; it was a game-time decision last week, and he is reportedly looking good for this Saturday. So, on the assumption that he’ll play, it’s difficult not to take the home underdog here. The Yellow Jackets have simply looked like the better team through the first two weeks of the season. A lot of their success is owed to the offensive line, which hasn’t allowed a sack, but they have never faced a defensive line like Clemson’s, which is arguably the best in the country. Honestly, it not only feels boring to take Clemson here, but it also feels dumb; there’s plenty of reason to like Georgia Tech here. Last time Swinney found himself in this type of situation was in 2023, when the Tigers barely beat Wake Forest at home and then lost by eight at Miami the next week. In 2021, Clemson barely beat Georgia Tech at home and then lost by six at NC State the next week. It’s not crazy to say that Swinney will make the same mistakes with this team, especially with how rough they look. I’m, rather blindly, convinced that Swinney is different now though. At halftime last week, he kicked the Tigers into overdrive, making the proper adjustments to completely blow out Troy in the second half. Swinney isn’t playing around anymore, and I believe everyone in Clemson has their foot on the gas. It’s time for a statement game for the Tigers.

Yi Key to Victory

Clemson: Do not play down to the opponent. If you barely lost to LSU, you should be able to beat any team in the country.

Georgia Tech: Outlast the Tigers. It’ll come down to who can push longer.

Prediction: Clemson 34, Georgia Tech 17

4. Pittsburgh @ West Virginia

The Backyard Brawl is a personal favorite of mine, not just because of the absolutely incredible name, but because of the incredibly rich history. And ever since coming back in 2022, it’s been electric; the point total is tied at an even 82-82, and the home team has won all three games. And since this is their last matchup until 2029, whoever wins this has bragging rights for the next four years. Though neither of these teams are quite national contenders, all eyes are on this matchup per usual.

Pittsburgh

Ever since Pat Narduzzi took over in 2015, the Panthers have only had two losing seasons; however, they’ve only had one season with double-digit wins and are 2-5 in bowl games. The Tigers have been sitting just above mediocrity for years, and this year is expected to bring more of the same. On the bright side, they’ve looked electric through the first two weeks of the season. At home, they beat Duquesne 61-9 and beat Central Michigan 45-17. The competition has been poor, but they’ve done their jobs. QB Eli Holstein is one of my favorite quarterbacks in the nation, and he’s been reminding me why. He’s first in the ACC in touchdowns (8), average yards per attempt (11.55), and PER (200.0). He leads an offense bringing back seven starters, including star RB, Desmond Reid; last year’s leading scoring receiver, Raphael Williams; and NFL draft prospect OT Ryan Baer. The defense also brings back seven players, led by the LB duo of Kyle Louis and Rasheem Biles, who combined for 183 tackles, 31 tackles for loss, 12.5 sacks, 12 passes defended, five interceptions, and two forced fumbles last season. This team has all of the star power they need, and they’ve shown it off against easier opponents. Now, they just have to put it all together in their most important game of the year.

West Virginia

Even more excitement surrounds this game with the return of HC Rich Rodriguez to Morgantown. The last time he coached a Backyard Brawl was in 2007. It’s one of the most iconic games of the century, when the Mountaineers were upset in the 100th rendition of the series, ruining their chances for the BCS National Championship. To say the least, Rodriguez has likely been starving for revenge for the past 18 years, and he finally has the chance to get it. This is not the same team as back then though; in fact, this isn’t even the same team as last week. Star RB Jaheim White injured his knee in the second quarter of week two, leading to the Mountaineers losing their lead in a 17-10 loss at Ohio. They also lost WR2 Jaden Bray to a season-ending injury, putting this offense in a very tough position. The only positive to come out of week two came on the other side of the ball. The defense forced three interceptions and a fumble. Other than that, it’s looking very grim for the Mountaineers. Everyone familiar with this game knows that anything can happen though. If there’s any game where everything before in the season doesn’t matter, it’s this one.

The Matchup

If these two had no history, this probably wouldn’t even be an interesting game in the slightest. Clearly, Pittsburgh is the better team and should win here. However, these teams have a lot of history, the 41st-most history between two teams in all of FBS. With Rodriguez at the helm and this matchup being in Morgantown, there’s actually a LOT of history in this matchup. This might be one of the most important games of Rodriguez’s life; he’s been thinking about this moment for almost two decades. It’s difficult to choose the worst team in any matchup (see above with Clemson and Georgia Tech), but the Backyard Brawl makes it very easy. The Mountaineers will be ready for war, and though the Panthers are clearly the better team, I can’t help but like West Virginia here. I’ll admit, there’s no stable logic to this pick. All I can say is that it’s the Backyard Brawl.

Yi Key to Victory

Pittsburgh: Don’t be cute. The Panthers are the better team, so just get the job done.

West Virginia: Fight for your life.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 20, West Virginia 21

3. (18) South Florida @ (5) Miami (FL)

Who in America won’t be tuning into this matchup? The Bulls are the most exciting team in the nation right now, coming off back-to-back ranked victories in spectacular fashion. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have an argument for being the number one team in the nation right now. According to ESPN’s strength of record, USF is third and Miami is fourth. This is an elite matchup guaranteed to have fireworks.

South Florida

There is no team in the nation that would like to play South Florida right now. QB Byrum Brown is arguably the most exciting player to watch in the country. He’s improved as a passer, throwing at a 65.0% completion rate without throwing any picks, and is still an animal running the ball with two touchdowns and 109 rushing yards. The true animals on this team are on defense though. As expected, returning stars LB Jhalyn Shuler, LB Mac Harris, CB De’Shawn Rucker, and SAF Tavin Ward have been monstrous. All four are top 12 in total tackles in the AAC, leading a defense that has allowed just 23 points through the first two games. Not enough people have recognized how generationally special this team has been. Beating Florida in The Swamp is one of the best victories a Group of 5 team has had in recent history, and that happened the week after beating the team coming off of one of the greatest Group of 5 seasons ever. There aren’t enough words to give USF the praise that they deserve.

Miami

So far, it seems like the Hurricanes have struck gold again with their transfer quarterback. QB Carson Beck has been silencing all of the doubters, which includes me. He’s sixth in the nation in completion rate (77.8%) and has yet to throw any picks. He was the reason  Miami beat Notre Dame in week one, being poised and showing the clear vet difference in the quarterback matchup (which is not a knock on CJ Carr, because he also played quite well). Beck’s play has opened up the game for RB Mark Fletcher Jr, who’s shown off why he’s regarded as one of the best running backs in the nation with his 152 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. The defense has been living up to the high expectations too, especially LB Rueben Bain Jr. He has 1.5 sacks, a forced fumble, and an interception; the guy is absolutely everywhere. Through the first two weeks, everything that Miami has shown off screams contender.

The Matchup

Picking against South Florida is very difficult, considering that they were in the exact same position last week and proved me wrong. But a Billy Napier team with a true sophomore quarterback is very different from a Mario Cristobal team with a sixth-year quarterback. It’s obvious why Miami should win here. The Canes are the more talented team, have just as impressive a resume, and are the hosts. However, South Florida has denied all traditional logic through these first two weeks, so I’ll refrain from reasoning out this matchup. Fool me once, shame on you, South Florida. If you fool me twice, well, shame on me. I’ll take the Canes here.

Yi Key to Victory

South Florida: Get huge takeaways. The Bulls have been top 20 in takeaways for the past three seasons (including this one). Knowing Beck’s history with interceptions, you have to expose him while he’s trying to cover up the past.

Miami: Redzone offense must fire on all cylinders. Florida had to kick three field goals in the first half, leading to their low score in the loss to USF.

Prediction: South Florida 14, Miami 24

2. (16) Texas A&M @ (8) Notre Dame

This is the second half of a home-and-away series between two of the most esteemed programs in the nation. On one side is Texas A&M, who have handled business through the first two weeks. On the other side is Notre Dame, who is looking to rebound from a tough week one loss at the hands of Miami. These two have had very opposite stories to start the season, but the real story begins here in another season-defining matchup for both teams.

Texas A&M

Knowing that the Fighting Irish were coming their way in week three, the Aggies scheduled two easy games to start the season. Through these first two games though, they haven’t been as dominant as most fans would prefer. UTSA is one of the strongest Group of 5 teams in the nation, so beating them 42-24 is a fine victory, but the Aggies didn’t make as huge a statement that you would want from a team trying to compete for a playoff spot. The same goes for their week two 44-22 victory over Utah State. Granted, TAMU slowed down to end both games, but I got to be critical when they’re being compared to a team like Notre Dame. Now, to the good parts: QB Marcel Reed is absolutely incredible. Reed has clearly taken a leap from last season, averaging a 66.2% completion rate with seven touchdown passes and no interceptions. He’s even gotten better at running the ball, averaging a strong 5.8 yards per rush. His spectacular play has set the stage for superstar transfer WRs Mario Craver and Kevin Concepcion. They’re the best receiving duo in the SEC, combining for 381 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns, and 22 receptions. The defense is also loaded with star power, but as a team, they’ve generally struggled. In the SEC, they’re last in points allowed (23.0), third-to-last in yards allowed (311.5), and have only forced one turnover. The Aggies have the talent of a top team in the nation, but we’ve yet to see them put that together against top competition. Saturday reveals all.

Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish didn’t play last week, so we’ve only seen them in their week one loss at Miami. In that loss, they looked rattled. The Hurricanes knew that they were coming in with a freshman quarterback and took advantage of it by completely shutting down superstar RB Jeremiyah Love and forcing Carr to will his team to victory. And to be fair, Carr looked about as good as one can look when playing their first game in Hard Rock Stadium. Throwing 19/30, he had 221 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and ran in a crucial late-game touchdown. He stepped up to the moment in spirit, but at the end of the day, a major reason ND lost was his untimely fourth quarter interception, which led to a Miami field goal — the difference-maker in a 27-24 loss. HC Marcus Freeman doesn’t need an opposing team’s head coach to give him the secret on how to defeat his team this time; Notre Dame has clearly got to figure out how to balance the offense while Carr still develops into the superstar they need him to be by the end of the season. As the Fighting Irish return home for the first time since their legendary win over Indiana in round one of the 2024 College Football Playoff, there isn’t a soul in the program who doesn’t have to step up on Saturday night.

The Matchup

Neither team can afford to lose this matchup. As Texas A&M heads into SEC play after this, getting a big, ranked win now would be huge for their playoff chances, since it’s basically guaranteed that they’ll suffer at least one loss along the way. And since they lost this matchup at Kyle Field last year, getting the win here would be a sweet lick of revenge. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is in a very different situation. ND does not have a very ‘hard’ matchup for the rest of the year. Since they’re not in a conference, if they don’t win this game, they’re virtually eliminated from the playoff picture for the rest of the year — it’d be a stunning reality after being the national runner-up just eight months ago. Looking into a bit of history, in HC Mike Eiko’s three prior seasons of head coaching experience, he’s 0-3 against ranked opponents on the road. This would actually be his third season in a row facing Notre Dame as a ranked team; he lost last year at home 13-23 and lost in 2023 with Duke in Durham 14-21. I’m convinced Freeman has got Eiko figured out. However, this is the worst team that Freeman’s brought to this matchup and the best that Eiko has. The formula for the Aggies is simple: Dd everything you can to stop Jeremiyah Love and force Carr to make mistakes. For Notre Dame, it’s not as easy, but if anybody can figure it out, it’s Freeman. We’ve got a chess matchup coming Saturday night, but I think the Aggies just have the better pieces. I’m investing in Marcel Reed, and I’ll pull for the upset.

Yi Key to Victory

Texas A&M: Shut down Jeremiyah Love no matter what.

Notre Dame: Outsmart the Aggies to get Love going.

Prediction: Texas A&M 34, Notre Dame 31

1. (6) Georgia @ (15) Tennessee

You probably haven’t heard a word from either of these teams since the season started, and that’s because they’ve been playing in absolute snooze fests. Well, Tennessee actually had a fun matchup against Syracuse in week one, but they handled business so easily that it was overlooked. Meanwhile, Georgia has genuinely hosted two of the most boring games of the year so far. That means that both of these teams have been loading up in preparation for this matchup, and that’s the exact type of thing you love to hear when it comes to a rivalry. Well, it hasn’t been much of a rivalry for the past 25 years, with the Bulldogs winning 19 of the past 25 games and the past eight straight, but at least the hate is present.

Georgia

Not a lot can be said about the Bulldogs at the moment, but that’s the first time I’ve said that in five years. They had a stretch of 29 consecutive victories spanning three seasons, and it feels like they were untouchable until Beck’s struggles last season. Now, with Gunner Stockton at quarterback, they’re trying to rise back to that same level of dominance. Stockton’s played great, throwing a 69.0% completion rate with two passing and two rushing touchdowns. That’s set up their stacked receiving room, consisting of Zachariah Branch, Colbie Young, London Humphreys, and TE Oscar Delp. One of the hardest hits they took this offseason was on their offensive line; all three of their IOLs were taken on day two of the NFL Draft, leaving a gaping hole that was filled by a rather inexperienced group. But under HC Kirby Smart, the Bulldogs have always been about defense. Despite seven of their players being taken in the NFL Draft, they should be fine. They churned in a new group that allowed just 13 total points to Marshall and Austin Peay. Led by their three returning starters, DL Christen Miller, CB Daylen Everette, and LB CJ Allen, the ferocious Bulldog defense isn’t going anywhere. Overall, the roster is new to each other, but they’ve had time to meld. With not a lot of experience in big games though, there’s no room for error.

Tennessee

The Volunteers have looked great through the first two weeks of the season. Nobody really cared about them beating Syracuse 45-26, which I feel is an injustice. That was a strong victory where they showed the separation between the average team and themselves. The Orange aren’t some powerhouse, but not many teams can kill them the way Tennessee did. So far, everything has looked good in Knoxville. Transfer QB Joey Aguilar’s biggest weakness last season at Appalachian State was his 14 interceptions, the most in the nation. So far, he’s thrown at a solid 66.1% completion rate with five touchdowns and no interceptions. The best performances in the backfield have come in the running back room though; Star Thomas and DeSean Bishop have combined for 362 scrimmage yards and five scrimmage touchdowns so far. This combination has led to the Vols averaging the most first downs in the nation (31.5), fourth-most points in the nation (58.5), and second-most yards in the nation (605.0). And despite missing projected top-10 pick CB Jermod McCoy, the defense has been able to hold up fine. The unit is bringing back seven starters, though last year’s defense was not particularly spectacular. Overall, the Volunteers have looked very good, but they are definitely not stacked with as much talent as most other top SEC contenders are, past a few players.

The Matchup

I’ll say it: Georgia owns Tennessee — at least, they have for the past 25 years. Now, this is the most unproven team we’ve seen the Bulldogs bring to Knoxville in a while, and we can’t forget how that went for Alabama last year, but the Volunteers are bringing a lot of weakness into this matchup as well. The story of Tennessee this season will be seeing how much their offense can outrun their defense; that’s how they destroyed Syracuse despite letting up 26 points and 377 total yards. Against Georgia, their offense is likely going to be stumped; it’s happened all four years that HC Josh Heupel has coached this matchup. In 2021, the Vols averaged 39.3 points a game; they scored 17 against Georgia. In 2022, they averaged the most points in the nation with 46.1 a game; they scored 13. The past two seasons, they averaged 31.8 and 35.7; if you combined their last two game scores, it would total 30. Smart is the best coach in the nation, and he has the more talented roster; everyone’s been saying that same thing every year, and it’s resulted in a correct prediction every time. It’s miserable for Tennessee fans, but Georgia is going to stretch their win streak to nine in a row.

Yi Key to Victory

Georgia: Expose Joey Aguilar as the interception-happy quarterback he is.

Tennessee: Get the ball moving on the ground and take easy yardage.

Prediction: Georgia 24, Tennessee 10